Actually, our son played a role in all this as well, and I look forward to seeing Alex make his mark in the energy industry before long. All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. and less Youve invented taxis & buses. Imagine it is 1965. Stehfest, H.: Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms,, Wagner, P.B., Economides, M.J., and Ehlig-Economides, C.A. In the hypothetical that you didnt know the name of the company, you mightve bought up a bunch of Google stock hoping that Orkut would be the winner, but while that wouldve been a decent investment (yay!) Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. The Wanderer And His Shadow, Human, All Too Human., Nathan Myhrvolds patent troll company Intellectual Ventures is also featured in Malcolm Gladwells essay on multiple invention, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?; IVs business model is to spew out patents for speculations that other people will then actually invent, who can then be extorted for license fees when they make the inventions work in the real world & produce value. The aeroplane industry cannot now redeem Daedalus nor can the computer industry recover the money spent by the British Admiralty more than a hundred years ago in support of Charles Babbage and his calculating machine. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. If convicted, he would have faced a prison term of up to five years. (All of which was doubtless why Page & Brin tried & failed to sell Google to AltaVista & Excite & Yahoo early on, and negotiated a possible sale with Yahoo as late as 2002 which they ultimately rejected.) The concept behind antireflection technology is to control the light used in an optical device in such a manner that the light rays reflect from surfaces where it is intended and . Or look at computers: imagine an early adopter of an Apple computer saying everyone will use computers eventually! Yes, but not for another few decades, and in the long run, we are all dead. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. So I read a lot of old papers. The energy business should ensure that the world has the affordable sustainable energy it needs without undue environmental impact. It was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us in business for another week. At one time I considered writing a study of Kafkas precursors. Google: we are building the worlds 20th search engine at a time when most of the others have been abandoned as being commoditized money losers. What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. And rental bikes., Instacart/Ocado/Uber Eats: Well do Kozmo.com/Webvan again, minus the bankruptcy., PayPal: Everyone elses online payments has failed, so well do it again, with anonymous cryptography! This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. Why would anyone think that the future of smartphones would be won by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine? Lets start one. Apparently by individuals acting suboptimally on the personal level, but optimally on societal level by serving as random exploration. 35 years. We ultimately chose to abandon our word choice, but the principle remains today: You have to be partly delusional to start a company given the prospects of success and the need to keep pushing forward in the wake of the constant stream of doubters. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. Bible verses about God's perfect timing. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. I for one will admit it, when I wake up the first thing I do is reach for my smartphone. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. It is universally admitted that the unicorn is a supernatural being and one of good omen; thus it is declared in the Odes, in the Annals, in the biographies of illustrious men, and in other texts of unquestioned authority. Although, I have used technology in my classroom before, now I. Hrleins efforts to translate success in certain areas (vitamin deficiency disease, chemotherapy of protozoal infections) into optimism about possibilities in other areas (cancer, antibacterial chemotherapy) was characteristic. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). There are many ways technology can help teachers see themselves and their practice more clearly. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. Sensors, displays batteries! multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. Included in this guide: 1 Seagate Backup Plus Ul. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. A successful company rewrites history and its precursors14; history must be lived forward, progressing to an obscure destination, but we always recall it backwards as progressing towards the clarity of the present. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. Can you at least profit from your knowledge of the outcome? Bad ideas that look like bad ideas are also easily dismissed; as the description implies, they are simply bad and thus likely to be trapdoors through which your investment dollars will vanish. Dasmarias, Cavite College of Business and Technology. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. ): CyberSlice blew through $174.1$100.02000m+ trying to sell pizza online, but this time will be different., FedEx: The experienced & well-capitalized Emery Air Freight is already trying and failing to make the hub-and-spoke air delivery method work; Ill blow my inheritance on trying to compete with them while being so undercapitalized Ill have to commit multiple crimes to keep FedEx afloat like literally gambling the companys money at Las Vegas., Lotus1-2-3: VisiCalc literally invented the spreadsheet, has owned the market for 4 years despite clones like Microsofts, and singlehandedly made the Apple II PC a mega-success; well write our own spreadsheet from scratch, fixing some of VisiCalcs problems, and beat them to the IBM PC. Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be entreated not to hit the nail at all. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. Michael Wolfe offers some examples of this: How about Netflix? You should start from 6:00 AM until 7:00 PM. Batteries is a big one.. A simple, efficient, and low-cost method is proposed to reduce the timing jitter in passively Q-switched microchip lasers by self-injection seeding. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. But equally, anything with that much potential has a high likelihood of failureif it was obviously a good idea with no risks, everyone would be doing it. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. List all technologies that you use every hour, and state your purpose of using this technology. Maybe some other discovery from left field has changed how we think about things. ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. I was expecting smartphones to take off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. As Goldstein&Kearney2017 describe their analysis of the numerical peer reviewer ratings of DARPA proposals: In other words, ARPA-E PDs tend to fund proposals on which reviewers disagree, given the same mean overall score. It is essential to try to have a day that is without the use of technology. Youve seen the curves Gordon Moore discovered. Fedex, early on, couldnt make payroll and the founder famously kept the planes flying only by gambling the last of their money in Las Vegas, among other near-death experiences & crimesjust one of many startups doing highly questionable things.12 Both SpaceX & Tesla have come within days (or hours) of bankruptcy, in 2008 and 2013; in the former case, Musk borrowed money from friends to pay his rent after 3 rocket failures in a row, and in the latter, Musk reportedly went as far as securing a pledge from Google to buy Tesla outright rather than let it go bankrupt (Vance2015). End of preview. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. During that time, I became interested in the notion that petroleum engineers might be better educated with a broader scope, what I would call energy engineering. As this happens, the way of life is eased, for example, the capability of communicating with people in far locations within a short time. Tesla: instead of just building batteries and selling them to Detroit, we are going to build our own cars from scratch plus own the distribution network. Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. Even now, after weve been building them for 100 years, its very difficult to understand just why a bicycle worksits even difficult to formulate it as a mathematical problem. He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. Building the habit of self reflection can help you build a fulfilling life. The course The ICT course was not really difficult, as I had a very good knowledge about the different types of technologies that were presented, but the idea of adapting them to my classroom got me thinking. Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". Pillars of the Industry - Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Ehlig-Economides has published more than 50 papers, has authored two patents, and has lectured or consulted in more than 30 countries. After taking some time to reflect on your learnings, you'll be ready to create a plan to sustain your technology practice in the school year to come. About a month later, I went to interview with Flopetrol Johnston in France and met Dominique Bourdet. The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. Such targeted research efforts can have disproprotionate payoffs and lead to sudden breakthroughs as the enemys frontline collapses. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. insulin, chemotherapy of kala-azar and malaria) that are solvable and whose solutions would eliminate the reverse salients.18. Its possible for entrepreneurs to create something with huge impact. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. However, when I arrived back in Memphis on Monday morning, much to my surprise, the bank balance stood at nearly $135,272.2$32,000.01973. Its not enough to theorize about the possibility or prototype something in the lab if there is then no followup. Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. Well differentiate with a funny safety video and by not being aholes. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. Many of these models may require transients much too long to be practical in a well test, but may be quite effective for analysis of production data (Fig. We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. Maybe somebody found a new gene. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. COWEN: Two last questions. Conclusion. (The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion). In the current time people can't imagine their life without technology. Yes, but when I discovered it, it stayed discovered. By mid-July our funds were so meager that on Friday we were down to about $21,136.3$5,000.01973 in the checking account, while we needed $101,454.2$24,000.01973 for the jet fuel payment. reflection-in-action. Our signature selling point will be that it takes fewer lines of code to set up, so programmers will like us., LinkedIn: Well do social networking like has been already patented by SixDegrees.com, forcing us to buy their patent., Slack: IRC+email but infinitely slower & more locked in. In addition, reflection is about stepping back to remind ourselves of the group's long-term aspirations and the role of near-term actions in accomplishing it.. . Format and timing Fails to meet minimum page requirements Submitted late : Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement. Its just nobody was paying attention to that. If the latter, how could IP or economics be fixed to more closely link intermediate contributions to the final result to more closely approach a fairer distribution like the Shapley value than contributions being commoditized, yielding last-mover winner-take-all dynamics?. The people listed in her article have all subscribed to the rigorous analysis that was necessary, and they, as she has, have left their mark in the improved understanding we now often take for granted. My best timing was meeting my husband of nearly 30 years, Michael Economides. What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. In His perfect timing, all is planned We must have patience, hold His hand. Survival alone is highly chancy, and founders can often see times where it came down to a dice roll.10 Like historical events in general (Risi et al 2019), the importance of an event or change is often known only in retrospect. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. Underlying this view was his definition and differentiation of the relevant disciplines and his belief in their generally excellent condition in Germany. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. The most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the pressure derivative. If you are copying these guys, you arent learning from them.. In other words, we wanted them to be momentary (i.e. Timing and technology alone will not yield sustainable competitive advantage. What does this analogy suggest? So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the fait accompli. Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) We couldnt know for sure that such projections were wrong, and the amount of money being spent back then on AI was truly trivial (and the commercial spinoffs likely paid for it all anyway). Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. Well strip out all of the ad-supported news and portal features so you wont be distracted from using the free search stuff. Yet they all seemed to be independently aiming for the same archetypal design. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . X Research source. Look after a pet. And in 2019, with 2012 a distant memory, well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers. Freeman Dyson, Freeman Dysons Brain 1998 (cf. During a recession and a cleantech backlash. 2. QR code? If you think about the spectrum of things in which you could invest, there are good ideas that look like good ideas. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). We do not know what a unicorn is like. Are we running out of oil and gas? The auditor who went through the companys books concluded that it was entirely solventwhich isnt surprising, when you consider that the lands it owned in America now produce trillions of dollars in economic value. One could also say the same thing of China: countless European observers forecast that China was a sleeping giant which, once it industrialized & modernized, would again be a global power. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. Or were they lucky in trying at the right time, and merely captured all of the value, because a 99% adequate VR headset is worth 0%, and they added the final 1%? If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. In fact, timing is a science. In my first draft of this essay in 2012, I noted that we see what looks like a Bitcoin bubble as the price inflates from ~$0 to $171.5$130.02012yet, if Bitcoin were the Real Deal, we would expect large price increases as people learn of it and it directly gains value from increased use, an ecosystem slowly unlocking the fancy cryptographic features, etc. The Educational Technology course is designed to prepare teachers for all different grade levels with skills, concepts and understanding among other skills to integrate technology in their lessons to enhance learning as well as to make learning more effective. No, and not even later, as demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the lingering death of MySpace. Its only rocket science., Uber/Lyft/DiDi: Taxis & buses. In essence, technology has always been with us and will always will be. [8: European AISB Newsletter, no. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. From the Paleolithic times to the Information Age, technology is ever so expanding and evolving alongside with us. Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal. Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. End-users love cryptography, right? For a recent timeline survey, see Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Gruetzemacher et al 2019, and for more, AI Impacts.org. The challenge had always been to come up with a closed-form solution that related to time. For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? We were talking about the past: VR wasnt talked about for a long time, right? First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. A predictable waste of money, perhaps, but thats how the incentives work out. So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. There is no convenient CMPTR you can buy 100 shares of and hold indefinitely to capture gains from your optimism about computers. Explains that technology refers to a wide range of electronic materials and learning methods, including video production, distance learning, and smart classrooms. What is different? The productivity boost expected from electric dynamos was slow to materialise, The evolution of large technological systems, #326, Part II. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a has-been 1980s PC maker and obscure! 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